In the first half of 2017, the average price of sec-butyl acetate was 4,734 yuan/ton, slightly better than the average price of 3,650 yuan/ton in the first half of 2016, but the demand was far behind.
Figure 1 Average price trend of sec-butyl acetate from 2014 to 2017
Data source: Jinlianchuang (formerly Treasure Island Information)
| Manufacturer | Production Status |
|---|---|
| manufacturer name | Description |
Data source: Jinlianchuang (formerly Treasure Island Information)
At present, the production enthusiasm of manufacturers is low, and the monthly start-up is maintained at about 20%. Under the current situation of low start-up, the inventory is still backlogged, so the manufacturers have recently made profits on real orders, but due to the overall downturn in the market atmosphere and the lack of end point usage, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field is relatively large.
In the early stage, crude oil prices were in a volatile downward trend. Some sec-butyl ester manufacturers said that if the crude oil price rose to 55 US dollars/barrel in the early stage, then the export situation would improve, but the current crude oil price is 43.01 US dollars/barrel, which is a large gap. Since the early stage of maintenance of Hunan Zhongchuang and Ruiyuan plants, the market has no export talks. So far, manufacturers have said that export opportunities are still small. At present, in the global economic stagnation stage, some industry players are not optimistic about the future market, and based on the current negative expectations of industry players for crude oil oversupply, the export oil market may be difficult to improve in the short term.
As shown in the figure above, carbon four after the raw material ether is relatively stable, but it is also in a downward stage at present. From May to June, the price of glacial acetic acid rose significantly, but sec-butyl ester deviated from its trend, and the downward pattern has not changed. After June, due to the simultaneous decline of sec-butyl ester and raw materials, although the profit margin narrowed, it is still considerable. Under the current situation that the downstream and end point demand is so light, the manufacturer's consumption of inventory will continue to make profits, and the possibility of falling to the cost line for shipment cannot be ruled out. According to the market reaction, the continuous downward adjustment of the manufacturer has a general stimulating effect on it. In addition, the central government's supervision threshold for chemical enterprises in various places is getting higher and higher, and the Therefore, under the influence of current crude oil, raw materials, demand, and start-up, sec-butyl acetate has not fallen to the psychological line of the industry entering the market, and it is still necessary to wait and see if it bottoms out.
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